I have been holding on to this theory all year and am finally getting around to posting it. I can accurately determine who will be kept around each week based on previous vote trends.

Here’s the trick: No one ever voted into the bottom three has ever won the competition. Translation: Once you’re voted into the bottom three, pack your bags.

Where this doesn’t hold true

Now before you go check me, there are two seasons where this theory doesn’t hold up. In season three (the William Hung season), Fantasia was voted into the bottom three the week of April 21. She went on to beat Diana DeGarmo in the final. (It should also be noted that this was the season with Jennifer Hudson who went on to do work in Dreamgirls.)

This is the most explicit case of going against my theory. However, I will say I don’t think Fantasia is any good. Out of all American Idol winners, she’s easily not at the top (Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood), but she isn’t the bottom either (Taylor Hicks). I personally think she’s screechy and, IMHO, if you ask most people, they probably didn’t know she was even a winner.

There’s only one other case where this theory doesn’t hold up and I can easily chalk this one up to being an outlier. In season eight, both Kris Allen AND Adam Lambert finished in the bottom three in the same week (the week of the Top 5).

These are easily two of the best contestants the show has ever seen; Adam Lambert could have easily been a winner in any other season. He’s so good, they even brought him back for THIS seasons as one of the contestants’ mentors. Easily an outlier that could be explained away by people assuming those two were going to be in the top two and America voting for other people assuming they’d be safe.

The current season (season nine)

And now, as I try to predict the future…

Below is a list of the Top 12 (conventionally known as the finalists, listed alphabetically). If they have a strike through them, it means they’ve landed in the bottom three and can no longer win season nine.

Update (May 20): Crystal and Lee in the finals. The only two the entire year never voted into the bottom three. The theory was 100% correct this year.

Update (May 13): Only one more week to prove my theory right! If Casey goes home and it’s Crystal vs. Lee in the finals, all will be right… Start putting your money down NOW on Casey James to go home.

Update (April 29): Sure enough, I was correct. Siobhan had no shot and I’m positive she was in the Bottom 3 that week. Also, it means we have our Top 2! Congrats, Lee DeWyze and Crystal Bowersox. If one of you two wins, my theory holds up yet again!

Update: Your Top 3 (in theory) is set! DeWyze, Bowersox, and Magnus should technically be the Top 3. However, my sinking suspicion is that Siobhan should be out already; AI pulled a quick one on us the week after Michael Lynche was saved by NOT revealing the bottom three. So there’s one person out there who should be on this list (or might already have been ON the list).

• Didi Benami
• Crystal Bowersox
• Lacey Brown
• Lee DeWyze
• Andrew Garcia
• Casey James
• Aaron Kelly
• Michael Lynch
• Siobhan Magnus
• Paige Miles
• Katie Stevens
• Tim Urban

Photo courtesy of topgelato.com.

These are my Top 5 favorite intros to televisions shows. A note, though: For these top television series intro titles I didn’t choose campy intros (think about “Step By Step”, “Family Matters”, “Cheers”, “Dinosaurs”, “Full House”) because, although iconic, not the best. It’d be like naming Vanilla Ice’s “Ice, Ice Baby” in your Top 5 favorite songs. News flash: Just because you know every word and sing it at karaoke does NOT make it your favorite song.

5. “Nip/Tuck”—F/X

While the show got a little bananas at the end of its run, I always liked the modern look of the intro. (In case you can’t tell by the look of this blog, I love modern.) Extremely clean, simple color palette, ambient tone. It’s such a perfect play on the theme of the show. I love how stark the red lines look on the already perfect bodies… because perfect wasn’t good enough.

My favorite part is when the hand twitches in sync with the beat at 0:08.

Paul Matthaeus (Title Designer), Vince Haycock (Title Designer), Eric Anderson (Title Designer), Matt Lavoy (Title Designer)

4. “The X-Files”—FOX

Little bit of trivia: Castle/Bryant/Johnsen, the peeps that did “The X-Files” opening titles, also did the title sequences for “Cheers,” “Family Ties,” and “Frasier.” Bonus trivia: Namesakes Carol Johnsen signed “Dana Scully’s” badge, while Jim Castle signed as “Fox Mulder.”

Castle/Bryant/Johnsen

3. “True Blood”—HBO

From an interview with Watch the Titles:

Editorially we collided the seething behind-the-curtains sexuality of the south into the fist pounding spirituality of Pentacostal healings to viscerally expose the conflicts we saw in the narrative of the show. … To house these juxtapositions we created an arc to the sequence. The piece extends from morning deep into the night, and as it does so it’s rhythms and content crescendo into increasingly darker and more aggressive territory. —Rama Allen, lead designer/concept co-creator

Read more over at Watch the Titles, or check it out from the source at Digital Kitchen Also, this is one of the top television series I’ve ever seen.

Matt Mulder (Creative Director), Rama Allen (Lead Designer), Camm Rowland (Type Designer)

2. “House, M.D.”—FOX

I’ve loved the House title sequence more than I’ve loved the show. I’ve always been in love with the old-timey drawings of the inner-workings of the human body and they looks stunning in this House intro. (Makes me wonder how they made the drawings.) House, combined with the Massive Attack track “Teardrop,” make this intro unforgettable, artistic, and effective. A little pensive, a little arrogant, very well done.

Dan Brown (Title Designer), Dave Molloy (Title Designer), Matt Mulder (Title Designer), Jake Sargeant (Title Designer)

Bonus Music

“Teardrop”—Massive Attack

[Audio clip: view full post to listen]

“Teardrop”—Jose Gonzalez

[Audio clip: view full post to listen]

1. “Dexter”—Showtime

I feel like I might as well just go work for Digital Kitchen since I love all their stuff. Dexter, another one by Digital Kitchen, is just so perfect at setting the stage for the show. The attention to detail, the uncomfortably close shots of shaving and cutting of meat—they manage to take the everyday breakfast routine and make you go through it as though YOU were the serial killer.

As the guys at DK put it:

The TV title sequence is a branding endeavor and a legitimate art form. It is the sole, consistent, and iconic moment that carries through a show’s lifespan and beyond. It’s what you remember most.

And that’s exactly what the title sequence to Dexter does.

Eric S. Anderson (Creative Director), Josh Bodnar (Editor), Lindsay Daniels (Designer), Colin Davis (Main Title Producer), original theme music by Rolfe Kent

Bonus Round

Did you know the short-lived animation series “Dilbert” won a Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Main Title Design in 1999?