I have been holding on to this theory all year and am finally getting around to posting it. I can accurately determine who will be kept around each week based on previous vote trends.

Here’s the trick: No one ever voted into the bottom three has ever won the competition. Translation: Once you’re voted into the bottom three, pack your bags.

Where this doesn’t hold true

Now before you go check me, there are two seasons where this theory doesn’t hold up. In season three (the William Hung season), Fantasia was voted into the bottom three the week of April 21. She went on to beat Diana DeGarmo in the final. (It should also be noted that this was the season with Jennifer Hudson who went on to do work in Dreamgirls.)

This is the most explicit case of going against my theory. However, I will say I don’t think Fantasia is any good. Out of all American Idol winners, she’s easily not at the top (Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood), but she isn’t the bottom either (Taylor Hicks). I personally think she’s screechy and, IMHO, if you ask most people, they probably didn’t know she was even a winner.

There’s only one other case where this theory doesn’t hold up and I can easily chalk this one up to being an outlier. In season eight, both Kris Allen AND Adam Lambert finished in the bottom three in the same week (the week of the Top 5).

These are easily two of the best contestants the show has ever seen; Adam Lambert could have easily been a winner in any other season. He’s so good, they even brought him back for THIS seasons as one of the contestants’ mentors. Easily an outlier that could be explained away by people assuming those two were going to be in the top two and America voting for other people assuming they’d be safe.

The current season (season nine)

And now, as I try to predict the future…

Below is a list of the Top 12 (conventionally known as the finalists, listed alphabetically). If they have a strike through them, it means they’ve landed in the bottom three and can no longer win season nine.

Update (May 20): Crystal and Lee in the finals. The only two the entire year never voted into the bottom three. The theory was 100% correct this year.

Update (May 13): Only one more week to prove my theory right! If Casey goes home and it’s Crystal vs. Lee in the finals, all will be right… Start putting your money down NOW on Casey James to go home.

Update (April 29): Sure enough, I was correct. Siobhan had no shot and I’m positive she was in the Bottom 3 that week. Also, it means we have our Top 2! Congrats, Lee DeWyze and Crystal Bowersox. If one of you two wins, my theory holds up yet again!

Update: Your Top 3 (in theory) is set! DeWyze, Bowersox, and Magnus should technically be the Top 3. However, my sinking suspicion is that Siobhan should be out already; AI pulled a quick one on us the week after Michael Lynche was saved by NOT revealing the bottom three. So there’s one person out there who should be on this list (or might already have been ON the list).

• Didi Benami
• Crystal Bowersox
• Lacey Brown
• Lee DeWyze
• Andrew Garcia
• Casey James
• Aaron Kelly
• Michael Lynch
• Siobhan Magnus
• Paige Miles
• Katie Stevens
• Tim Urban

Photo courtesy of topgelato.com.

Don’t worry; I created the mash-up. You can listen for yourself here:

[Audio clip: view full post to listen]

Track available for download as well.
(You iPhone users can click that link to listen to it on your phone.)

Either way, from what many are calling one of the worst decades the US has seen, some damn good music still came out. These are my Top 5 favorite records from the 2000s.

5. *NSYNC — No Strings Attached (2000)

*NSYNC: Glory years at the turn of the century

Love them or hate them (I’ve always loved them), this was one of those defining musical moments, a schism that cemented the Boy Band Era and effectively ended the Nirvanas, Becks, and Smashing Pumpkins’ of the world. Justin Timberlake proved you could go through something that tweens obsessed over and come out on the other side a sex symbol, morphing himself into a career that aged with him instead of trapping him at 16. No Strings Attached’s 2.4 million sold in its first week set records for both Most Records Sold in a First Week, as well being the only album to have ever sold over 2 million records in one week. [Audio clip: view full post to listen]

4. Eminem — The Marshall Mathers LP (2000)

Eminem on a TRL performance

…and right in the middle of that Boy Band Era, Eminem decided to step on the scene and change the rap game as we know it. Between this record and Jay-Z’s The Blueprint (which was released on the day the World Trade Center fell), a whole new era of hip-hop was popularized. Eminem was mobbed on TRL. Was starring in 8 Mile with even an Oscar mentioned in the same sentence. Was reaching suburban houses and was theoretically wreaking havoc, causing lawsuits left and right… and it just might be that he’s the greatest rapper of all-time. [Audio clip: view full post to listen]

3. Kanye West — The College Dropout (2004)

Kanye West, circa 2004

I started listening to this record non-stop while driving back and forth from my apartment to my bartending job just after graduating college, but still living in Columbia, SC. I even got the chance to see Kanye live at what was then called the Carolina Center when he came through on tour in 2004. It was literally just him and his DJ: No entourage, no band, nothing. Just his mic and his DJ, and it was entirely captivating. [Audio clip: view full post to listen]

2. The Killers — Hot Fuss (2004)

The Killers, circa 2004

I remember reading about The Killers in a Rolling Stone when I was in college. It was their annual “Hot” issue (where they tell you what, suprisingly, is hot). The Killers were named Hot Band in the 2004 issue. I never liked any band Rolling Stone was pimping out, but checked them out anyway. And Hot Fuss (right next to No. 3 above, The College Dropout), ended up becoming the soundtrack to my senior year in college. [Audio clip: view full post to listen]

1. August Burns Red — Messengers (2007)

August Burns Red on tour in 2007

What I believe to be the best metal record of all-time was released in 2007. Ever since hearing the 808 drop about two minutes into “Back Burner”, I was sold. To this day, this record is in my Top 5 records of all-time. Unbelievable songwriting. Quite possibly some of the best drumming I’ve ever heard. Crisp, clean production. An undeniable record. “Back Burner” “Composure”

Photos courtesy of , screen capture from Eminem performance on TRL, WPIX.com, Rolling Stone and a photo from my collection. Videos courtesy of Solid State Records.

5. Black Eyed Peas — “I Gotta Feeling”

BEP’s The E.N.D. might be the best overall record released in 2009, right next to (if you count it in 2009) Lady Gaga’s The Fame. It’s good from the top down. It’s just unfortunate they’re not that great to watch live. [Audio clip: view full post to listen]

4. Shakira — “She-Wolf”

Shakira’s like fine wine and scotch in that it seems the older she gets, the better looking she becomes. Her latest She-Wolf phase is adorable and the music is so disco. [Audio clip: view full post to listen]

3. Soulja Boy — “Turn My Swag On”

I wanted to hate this song soooo bad. Like, really, really badly. Instead, I embraced the off-key singing and became a fan. As it would turn out, Soulja Boy released a freaking awesome record in “iSouljaBoyTellEm” (yes, that’s the real name of it). I’m going to go ahead and consider this one the 2009 version of “Ay Bay Bay”, where you’re like WTF? and next thing you know you’re singing it in the shower wondering how it infiltrated your life. [Audio clip: view full post to listen]

2. Jay-Z (feat. Alicia Keys) — “Empire State of Mind”

It hasn’t been out for that long, but it’s such a beautiful song—it’s hard to go wrong with one of the greatest rappers of all-time and one of the most talented singer/songwriters of all-time. It’s epic with a near-perfect melody for a hook. [Audio clip: view full post to listen]

1. Jay Sean — “Down”

In what might be the most predictable song of all-time, I still can’t stop singing it. (Staccato strings? Check. Verse Chorus Verse Chorus Bridge? Check. Lil’ Wayne cameo? Check.) If I even hear something that sounds remotely like it, I’ll have “Down” stuck in my head for the rest of the damn day. [Audio clip: view full post to listen]

Photos courtesy of Shakira.com, resonantdreams, the “I Gotta Feeling” music video, gossiponthis.com, and some random Web site that just repurposes content and most likely stole Jay Sean’s picture so if you know who actually owns that picture let me know so I can credit them accordingly.

(And they talk for awhile at the beginning. Skip to :50 for the song!)

I first saw this on Just Jared

5. Aha — “Take on Me”

Now while most ’80s music videos are skrate bad, this one is actually not too bad. It’s just so iconic. So is the song. It’s a must know. That’s the end of that. I especially like the Family Guy parody of it.

4. Dead or Alive — “You Spin Me Round (Like a Record)”

“Alright, I’ve got this great idea for your music video.”
“OK, lay it on us.”
“So in the hook, we’re going to have all of the band stand back to back on a device that will turn them.”
“Whoa. Like, TURN them?”
“Yes. Turn them, probably all the way ’round.”
“What do you mean, like, like a record?”
“I’d say that’s a great analogy.”
“So the band will be turning, like a record, during the hook of the song.”
“Yes. What do you think?”
“Do it. Perfect.”

3. Huey Lewis and the News — “Do You Believe in Love?”

Alright, there are so many things that are perfect to this video. Let’s run through them in chronological order:

• 0:09—From the jump, creepy dude watching sleeping naked chick.
• 0:47—Huey Lewis looking directly into your eyes and telling you that he wants to “love you all over.”
• 0:51—Whole band watching sleeping naked chick does not equal less creepy.
• 1:15—Huey Lewis + Purple Shirt + Silk + Sweet Dance Moves = Awesome
• 1:44—Best part of the whole video. Bed magically expands and entire clothed band ends up in it with sleeping chick. All tapping foot. HA!
• 2:02—Classic “It’s my solo!” scene.

Anyway, you get the drift. Thank you, Huey. Thank you, The News.

2. Rick Astley — “Never Gonna Give You Up”

Before Rick Rolling people became an Internet phenomenon, this video was STILL awesome. There’s a reason it became a 2008 cultural landmark. The best part about this video are Rick Astley’s outfits. That, and that to me he looks somewhat obscurely like Doogie Howser.

Just like you’ll find out with Journey, the big suits have decided that embedding this video in your player is not allowed. Check out the video—and yes, I gave you the pop-up video version.

1. Journey — “Separate Ways”

Hands down the winner. I remember the first time I saw this it was like the perfect cocktail of sweet ’80s music and comedy. The part where they’re all in a line and singing. The keyboardists flair at the end of one of his phrases. The hot chick walking around. Playing invisible instruments and when they pop up a total jump cut. I mean, it can NOT get any better. If you haven’t seen this video before, you can thank me later.