David Stagg

Could Marshawn Lynch save the PAC-10 from mediocrity?

Every sports fan seems to be fanatical about their conference. As a Gamecock, I believe in the superiority of the SEC. But wander up to Ann Arbor? I’m sure you’ll hear all about how awesome the Big 10 is.

Today at work, I postulated to my co-worker JMO that the PAC-10 actually wasn’t as bad as everyone thought. The PAC-10, usually bearing the brunt of crappy conference jokes, has had a recent (and by recent, we agreed on the past five years) surge in success. JMO, of course, claimed the PAC-10 still sucked. Running it through my head, I was thinking USC has always been incredible, but with Oregon, UCLA, and the occasional Oregon St. screwing around, I was sure they had a shot at being better than the Big 10 and surely ahead of the ACC and Big East.

Either way, JMO crunched the numbers, and I was surely wrong.

Here are the details of the study:

1. We used AP rankings for no reason whatsoever. If a team is really that great, they’re most likely close enough in any poll. Plus, AP ranks were easier to copy and paste into a spreadsheet.
2. We only used BCS eligible teams. (This was to help eliminate the argument that teams who play in non-BCS conferences play too many “weak” teams. This is an entirely debatable point; just accept this one for the sake of argument.)
3. The teams for each conference were totaled up in five-team-tiers, e.g. conferences with teams in the Top 5, conferences with teams in the Top 10, etc.
4. They were then averaged across the five years of ranking (2005-2009).
5. And don’t forget: These are ranking at the end of the year. They’ve played their full conference schedules at this point.
6. This would give us an average number of teams per conference in each tier for the past five years.

Analysis? The SEC is far and away the best (restated: toughest) conference in the nation.

The Top 25 Teams of the past five years

You can download the full Excel spreadsheet with the data used to create our results.

Interpretation of the graph (so you don’t have to do the hard work):

1. The SEC we could clearly state as standing alone in a Tier 1. There is an incredible jump at the Top 10-15 range, meaning there are constantly a LOT of SEC teams ranked in the Top 15, making them the deepest conference in the nation, consistently. (Notable rankings: Alabama national championship, 2009; consistent mid-level rankings from Auburn, Ole Miss; an LSU-Georgia 1-2 punch in 2007; a Florida-LSU 1-3 punch in 2006.)
2. We would put the Big 10 and Big 12 in Tier 2. This brings us to the most surprising fact of the whole experiment: The Big 10 has never dipped below the Big 12, and the Big 12 never surpasses the Big 10.
   • People always want to just default to the SEC and Big 12 as the superior conferences, but it just isn’t true. Ohio St. and Michigan were probably on your mind, but Michigan does not help you out (NR, NR, #18, #8, NR from 2009-2005 respectively).
   • Penn St., Wisconsin, and recently Iowa, however, have been upping the mid-level rankings to get the boost needed for depth.
3. And unfortunately, my postulation was wrong: The PAC-10 does suck, coming in at a Tier 3 with the ACC and the Big East.
   • The Big East is clearly the worst conference. They average 0.2 teams in the Top 5 (which, oddly, is greater than the goose egg laid by the ACC), but quickly stagnate from there.
   • The PAC-10, outside of USC and Oregon, just needs to hope that someone else has a good year. PAC-10 specific, here are the people you forgot about that gave you a shot outside of USC and Oregon: Arizona St. makes an appearance in 2007, finishing at #16; Cal dropping in at #14 in 2006 (the DeSean Jackson and Marshawn Lynch years); and UCLA at #16 in 2005 (Marcedes Lewis anyone?).
   • The ACC clearly has some above average teams, but never enough to be elite. In the lower half of the Top 25, they just surge; it’s like they’re good, but never good enough to break through the Top 15. Miami (FL) hasn’t lived up to its name; Georgia Tech, Florida St., and Virginia Tech just screaming mediocrity getting a taste a the Top 10 but never finishing off strong. (Virginia Tech and Boston College made a run in 2007; Virginia Tech at #7 i 2005.)
4. And as a Gamecock, I’m just not going to give Clempson any credit.

Either way, go fool your friends and tell them to look up the last five years. Just make sure you’re on the SEC side.