David Stagg

A bunch of finalists from season nine of American Idol

Update (May 20): Jump to the current standings of this theory.

I have been holding on to this theory all year and am finally getting around to posting it. I can accurately determine who will be kept around each week based on previous vote trends.

Here’s the trick: No one ever voted into the bottom three has ever won the competition. Translation: Once you’re voted into the bottom three, pack your bags.

Where this doesn’t hold true

Now before you go check me, there are two seasons where this theory doesn’t hold up. In season three (the William Hung season), Fantasia was voted into the bottom three the week of April 21. She went on to beat Diana DeGarmo in the final. (It should also be noted that this was the season with Jennifer Hudson who went on to do work in Dreamgirls.)

This is the most explicit case of going against my theory. However, I will say I don’t think Fantasia is any good. Out of all American Idol winners, she’s easily not at the top (Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood), but she isn’t the bottom either (Taylor Hicks). I personally think she’s screechy and, IMHO, if you ask most people, they probably didn’t know she was even a winner.

There’s only one other case where this theory doesn’t hold up and I can easily chalk this one up to being an outlier. In season eight, both Kris Allen AND Adam Lambert finished in the bottom three in the same week (the week of the Top 5).

These are easily two of the best contestants the show has ever seen; Adam Lambert could have easily been a winner in any other season. He’s so good, they even brought him back for THIS seasons as one of the contestants’ mentors. Easily an outlier that could be explained away by people assuming those two were going to be in the top two and America voting for other people assuming they’d be safe.

The current season (season nine)

And now, as I try to predict the future…

Below is a list of the Top 12 (conventionally known as the finalists, listed alphabetically). If they have a strike through them, it means they’ve landed in the bottom three and can no longer win season nine.

Update (May 20): Crystal and Lee in the finals. The only two the entire year never voted into the bottom three. The theory was 100% correct this year.

Update (May 13): Only one more week to prove my theory right! If Casey goes home and it’s Crystal vs. Lee in the finals, all will be right… Start putting your money down NOW on Casey James to go home.

Update (April 29): Sure enough, I was correct. Siobhan had no shot and I’m positive she was in the Bottom 3 that week. Also, it means we have our Top 2! Congrats, Lee DeWyze and Crystal Bowersox. If one of you two wins, my theory holds up yet again!

Update: Your Top 3 (in theory) is set! DeWyze, Bowersox, and Magnus should technically be the Top 3. However, my sinking suspicion is that Siobhan should be out already; AI pulled a quick one on us the week after Michael Lynche was saved by NOT revealing the bottom three. So there’s one person out there who should be on this list (or might already have been ON the list).

• Didi Benami
• Crystal Bowersox
• Lacey Brown
• Lee DeWyze
• Andrew Garcia
• Casey James
• Aaron Kelly
• Michael Lynch
• Siobhan Magnus
• Paige Miles
• Katie Stevens
• Tim Urban

Photo courtesy of topgelato.com.